Dinamo Pančevo 5–3 FK Becej: Result & Stats

Dinamo Pančevo

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

FK Becej

5/14/2022

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 27Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo58%

×Draw21%

FK Becej21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo PančevoExpected goals in this matchFK Becej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.19

Dinamo Pančevo

2.10

FK Becej

1.19

Dinamo Pančevo creates 76% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 88 away

1.71

creates per match

1.16

1.21

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo

1.71

FK Becej

1.16

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo

1.21

FK Becej

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

FK Becej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw

79%

Dinamo Pančevo or FK Becej

79%

Draw or FK Becej

42%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+

35%

FK Becej wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals

88%

Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals

62%

Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals

35%

FK Becej 1+ goals

70%

FK Becej 2+ goals

33%

FK Becej 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)

73%

FK Becej (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.10

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more

58%

level

21%

FK Becej scores more

21%

Dinamo Pančevo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff