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Dinamo Pančevo vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
3 – 1
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
10/7/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 11Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo68%
×Draw19%
Dunav Stari Banovci14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
2.23
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.89

Dinamo Pančevo creates 151% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.57

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.75

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
86%
Dinamo Pančevo or Dunav Stari Banovci
81%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
32%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
44%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
89%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
65%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
38%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
59%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
22%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
83%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.23

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
68%
level
19%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
14%

Dinamo Pančevo at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Pančevo vs Dunav Stari Banovci

Dinamo Pančevo beat Dunav Stari Banovci 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.