Dinamo Moskva W 0–1 CSKA Moskva W: Result & Stats

Dinamo Moskva W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA Moskva W

5/24/2024

Supreme Division Women · Round 11UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dinamo Moskva W23%

×Draw25%

CSKA Moskva W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Moskva WExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moskva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.65

Dinamo Moskva W

1.00

CSKA Moskva W

1.65

CSKA Moskva W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 75 away

1.53

creates per match

2.16

1.14

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva W

1.53

CSKA Moskva W

2.16

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva W

1.14

CSKA Moskva W

0.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moskva W+0.00on par

CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva W ↓

CSKA Moskva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva W or draw

47%

Dinamo Moskva W or CSKA Moskva W

75%

Draw or CSKA Moskva W

77%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva W wins by 2+

8%

CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva W 1+ goals

63%

Dinamo Moskva W 2+ goals

26%

Dinamo Moskva W 3+ goals

8%

CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals

81%

CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals

49%

CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva W (draw refunded)

30%

CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva W at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.14 · 43 matches

CSKA Moskva W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva W attack 1.53 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.00

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.16 + Dinamo Moskva W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dinamo Moskva W scores more

23%

level

25%

CSKA Moskva W scores more

53%

CSKA Moskva W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CSKA Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff