Dinamo Moskva W 1–1 Chertanovo W: Result & Stats

Dinamo Moskva W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chertanovo W

5/4/2024

Supreme Division Women · Round 8UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dinamo Moskva W46%

×Draw26%

Chertanovo W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Moskva WExpected goals in this matchChertanovo W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.09

Dinamo Moskva W

1.47

Chertanovo W

1.09

Dinamo Moskva W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 74 away

1.53

creates per match

1.04

1.14

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva W

1.53

Chertanovo W

1.04

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva W

1.14

Chertanovo W

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moskva W+0.00on par

Chertanovo W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva W ↓

Chertanovo W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva W or draw

72%

Dinamo Moskva W or Chertanovo W

74%

Draw or Chertanovo W

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva W wins by 2+

23%

Chertanovo W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva W 1+ goals

77%

Dinamo Moskva W 2+ goals

43%

Dinamo Moskva W 3+ goals

18%

Chertanovo W 1+ goals

66%

Chertanovo W 2+ goals

30%

Chertanovo W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva W (draw refunded)

62%

Chertanovo W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva W at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.14 · 43 matches

Chertanovo W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva W attack 1.53 + Chertanovo W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Chertanovo W attack 1.04 + Dinamo Moskva W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Moskva W scores more

46%

level

26%

Chertanovo W scores more

28%

Dinamo Moskva W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff