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Dinamo Moskva U20 vs Tambov U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Dinamo Moskva U20
Dinamo Moskva U20
FT
4 – 2
Tambov U20
Tambov U20
S. Latcevich 44', 2' (pen)
A. Mazurin 40'
A. Yapryntsev 11' (pen)
D. Merenchukov 49'
V. Kozlov 31'
10/28/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 8UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dinamo Moskva U2069%
×Draw16%
Tambov U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva U20
2.79
Tambov U20
1.25

Dinamo Moskva U20 creates 123% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva U20
2.95
Tambov U20
1.25

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva U20
1.25
Tambov U20
2.63

finishing

Dinamo Moskva U20+0.00on par
Tambov U20+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva U20 ↓

Tambov U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva U20 or draw
85%
Dinamo Moskva U20 or Tambov U20
84%
Draw or Tambov U20
31%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva U20 wins by 2+
48%
Tambov U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva U20 1+ goals
94%
Dinamo Moskva U20 2+ goals
76%
Dinamo Moskva U20 3+ goals
52%
Tambov U20 1+ goals
71%
Tambov U20 2+ goals
36%
Tambov U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
82%
Tambov U20 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Tambov U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva U20 attack 2.95 + Tambov U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.79

Tambov U20 attack 1.25 + Dinamo Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Dinamo Moskva U20 scores more
69%
level
16%
Tambov U20 scores more
15%

Dinamo Moskva U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
S. LatcevichPenalty
11'
A. YapryntsevPenalty
31'
V. Kozlov
40'
A. Mazurin
44'
S. Latcevich
49'
D. Merenchukov
86'
D. Malygin
86'
Z. Gigashvili

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Dinamo Moskva U20 4–2 Tambov U20

Dinamo Moskva U20 beat Tambov U20 4-2 in Youth Championship on October 28, 2020.

Goals: S. Latcevich (2' pen, 44'), A. Yapryntsev (11' pen), V. Kozlov (31'), A. Mazurin (40'), D. Merenchukov (49').

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.