Dinamo Moskva U20 1–1 Rubin Kazan U20

Dinamo Moskva U20

FT

1 – 1

Rubin Kazan U20

7/20/2019

Youth Championship · Round 2UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dinamo Moskva U2061%

×Draw19%

Rubin Kazan U2020%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Moskva U20Expected goals in this matchRubin Kazan U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.29

Dinamo Moskva U20

2.35

Rubin Kazan U20

1.29

Dinamo Moskva U20 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 84 away

2.95

creates per match

1.32

1.25

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva U20

2.95

Rubin Kazan U20

1.32

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva U20

1.25

Rubin Kazan U20

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moskva U20+0.00on par

Rubin Kazan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva U20 ↓

Rubin Kazan U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva U20 or draw

80%

Dinamo Moskva U20 or Rubin Kazan U20

81%

Draw or Rubin Kazan U20

39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva U20 wins by 2+

39%

Rubin Kazan U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva U20 1+ goals

90%

Dinamo Moskva U20 2+ goals

68%

Dinamo Moskva U20 3+ goals

41%

Rubin Kazan U20 1+ goals

72%

Rubin Kazan U20 2+ goals

37%

Rubin Kazan U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

75%

Rubin Kazan U20 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Rubin Kazan U20 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva U20 attack 2.95 + Rubin Kazan U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.35

Rubin Kazan U20 attack 1.32 + Dinamo Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Moskva U20 scores more

61%

level

19%

Rubin Kazan U20 scores more

20%

Dinamo Moskva U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff