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Dinamo Moskva U20 vs Rostov U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Dinamo Moskva U20
Dinamo Moskva U20
FT
1 – 0
Rostov U20
Rostov U20
11/22/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 17UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dinamo Moskva U2061%
×Draw19%
Rostov U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva U20
2.48
Rostov U20
1.38

Dinamo Moskva U20 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva U20
2.95
Rostov U20
1.50

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva U20
1.25
Rostov U20
2.00

finishing

Dinamo Moskva U20+0.00on par
Rostov U20+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva U20 ↓

Rostov U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva U20 or draw
80%
Dinamo Moskva U20 or Rostov U20
81%
Draw or Rostov U20
39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva U20 wins by 2+
40%
Rostov U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva U20 1+ goals
92%
Dinamo Moskva U20 2+ goals
70%
Dinamo Moskva U20 3+ goals
44%
Rostov U20 1+ goals
75%
Rostov U20 2+ goals
40%
Rostov U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Rostov U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Rostov U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva U20 attack 2.95 + Rostov U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

Rostov U20 attack 1.50 + Dinamo Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Moskva U20 scores more
61%
level
19%
Rostov U20 scores more
20%

Dinamo Moskva U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Dinamo Moskva U20 1–0 Rostov U20

Dinamo Moskva U20 beat Rostov U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on November 22, 2019.

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.