Dinamo Moskva U20 2–0 Akhmat Grozny U20

Dinamo Moskva U20

FT

2 – 0

Akhmat Grozny U20

11/1/2019

Youth Championship · Round 15UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dinamo Moskva U2067%

×Draw18%

Akhmat Grozny U2016%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Moskva U20Expected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.17

Dinamo Moskva U20

2.54

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.17

Dinamo Moskva U20 creates 117% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 90 away

2.95

creates per match

1.09

1.25

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva U20

2.95

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.09

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva U20

1.25

Akhmat Grozny U20

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moskva U20+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva U20 ↓

Akhmat Grozny U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva U20 or draw

84%

Dinamo Moskva U20 or Akhmat Grozny U20

82%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny U20

33%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva U20 wins by 2+

45%

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva U20 1+ goals

92%

Dinamo Moskva U20 2+ goals

72%

Dinamo Moskva U20 3+ goals

46%

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals

69%

Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals

33%

Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

81%

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Akhmat Grozny U20 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva U20 attack 2.95 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.54

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.09 + Dinamo Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dinamo Moskva U20 scores more

67%

level

18%

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more

16%

Dinamo Moskva U20 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff