Dinamo Moskva U19 1–1 Ural U20: Result & Stats

Dinamo Moskva U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ural U20

5/17/2024

Youth Championship · Round 10UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dinamo Moskva U1953%

×Draw23%

Ural U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Moskva U19Expected goals in this matchUral U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.14

Dinamo Moskva U19

1.80

Ural U20

1.14

Dinamo Moskva U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 99 away

1.54

creates per match

1.01

1.26

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva U19

1.54

Ural U20

1.01

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva U19

1.26

Ural U20

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moskva U19+0.00on par

Ural U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva U19 ↓

Ural U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva U19 or draw

76%

Dinamo Moskva U19 or Ural U20

77%

Draw or Ural U20

47%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva U19 wins by 2+

29%

Ural U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva U19 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Moskva U19 2+ goals

54%

Dinamo Moskva U19 3+ goals

27%

Ural U20 1+ goals

68%

Ural U20 2+ goals

32%

Ural U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Ural U20 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva U19 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Ural U20 away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.06 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva U19 attack 1.54 + Ural U20 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.80

Ural U20 attack 1.01 + Dinamo Moskva U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dinamo Moskva U19 scores more

53%

level

23%

Ural U20 scores more

24%

Dinamo Moskva U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff