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Dinamo Moskva U19 vs Sochi U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Dinamo Moskva U19
Dinamo Moskva U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sochi U20
Sochi U20
9/19/2025Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 23UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dinamo Moskva U1945%
×Draw24%
Sochi U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva U19
1.63
Sochi U20
1.29

Dinamo Moskva U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 92 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva U19
1.54
Sochi U20
1.33

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva U19
1.26
Sochi U20
1.71

finishing

Dinamo Moskva U19+0.00on par
Sochi U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva U19 ↓

Sochi U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva U19 or draw
70%
Dinamo Moskva U19 or Sochi U20
76%
Draw or Sochi U20
55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva U19 wins by 2+
23%
Sochi U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva U19 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Moskva U19 2+ goals
48%
Dinamo Moskva U19 3+ goals
22%
Sochi U20 1+ goals
72%
Sochi U20 2+ goals
37%
Sochi U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Sochi U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva U19 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Sochi U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva U19 attack 1.54 + Sochi U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sochi U20 attack 1.33 + Dinamo Moskva U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Moskva U19 scores more
45%
level
24%
Sochi U20 scores more
30%

Dinamo Moskva U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Dinamo Moskva U19 0–2 Sochi U20

Sochi U20 beat Dinamo Moskva U19 2-0 in Youth Championship on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.