Dinamo Moskva U19 3–2 Orenburg U19: Result & Stats

Dinamo Moskva U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Orenburg U19

7/5/2024

Youth Championship · Round 13UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dinamo Moskva U1962%

×Draw20%

Orenburg U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Moskva U19Expected goals in this matchOrenburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.02

Dinamo Moskva U19

2.10

Orenburg U19

1.02

Dinamo Moskva U19 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

1.54

creates per match

0.79

1.26

allows per match

2.66

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva U19

1.54

Orenburg U19

0.79

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva U19

1.26

Orenburg U19

2.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moskva U19+0.00on par

Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva U19 ↓

Orenburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva U19 or draw

82%

Dinamo Moskva U19 or Orenburg U19

80%

Draw or Orenburg U19

38%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva U19 wins by 2+

38%

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva U19 1+ goals

88%

Dinamo Moskva U19 2+ goals

62%

Dinamo Moskva U19 3+ goals

35%

Orenburg U19 1+ goals

64%

Orenburg U19 2+ goals

27%

Orenburg U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva U19 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva U19 attack 1.54 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.10

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + Dinamo Moskva U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dinamo Moskva U19 scores more

62%

level

20%

Orenburg U19 scores more

18%

Dinamo Moskva U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff