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Dinamo Moskva II vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
8/1/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Dinamo Moskva II56%
×Draw22%
Znamya Truda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva II
1.97
Znamya Truda
1.18

Dinamo Moskva II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva II
2.35
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva II
1.28
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva II ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva II or draw
77%
Dinamo Moskva II or Znamya Truda
78%
Draw or Znamya Truda
44%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
33%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
86%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
58%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
31%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
69%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
33%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
71%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva II attack 2.35 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.97

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dinamo Moskva II scores more
56%
level
22%
Znamya Truda scores more
23%

Dinamo Moskva II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Moskva II vs Znamya Truda

Dinamo Moskva II beat Znamya Truda 3-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.