Dinamo Moskva II 2–1 Torpedo Moskva II

Dinamo Moskva II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Torpedo Moskva II

9/23/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Moskva II52%

×Draw23%

Torpedo Moskva II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Moskva IIExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.21

Dinamo Moskva II

1.84

Torpedo Moskva II

1.21

Dinamo Moskva II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 24 away

2.35

creates per match

1.13

1.28

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva II

2.35

Torpedo Moskva II

1.13

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva II

1.28

Torpedo Moskva II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva II ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva II or draw

75%

Dinamo Moskva II or Torpedo Moskva II

77%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva II

48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+

29%

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals

55%

Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals

28%

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals

70%

Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals

34%

Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)

67%

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva II attack 2.35 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.84

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Moskva II scores more

52%

level

23%

Torpedo Moskva II scores more

25%

Dinamo Moskva II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff