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Dinamo Moskva II vs Kazanka — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kazanka
Kazanka
8/29/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dinamo Moskva II51%
×Draw23%
Kazanka26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva II
1.79
Kazanka
1.22

Dinamo Moskva II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 31 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva II
2.35
Kazanka
1.16

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva II
1.28
Kazanka
1.23

finishing

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par
Kazanka+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva II ↓

Kazanka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva II or draw
74%
Dinamo Moskva II or Kazanka
77%
Draw or Kazanka
49%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
28%
Kazanka wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
83%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
53%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
26%
Kazanka 1+ goals
70%
Kazanka 2+ goals
34%
Kazanka 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
66%
Kazanka (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Kazanka away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva II attack 2.35 + Kazanka defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kazanka attack 1.16 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dinamo Moskva II scores more
51%
level
23%
Kazanka scores more
26%

Dinamo Moskva II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo Moskva II 2–2 Kazanka

Dinamo Moskva II and Kazanka drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 2 on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Rodina in Khimki.