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Dinamo Moskva II vs Kairat Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
6/10/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 12UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dinamo Moskva II52%
×Draw23%
Kairat Moskva25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva II
1.77
Kairat Moskva
1.14

Dinamo Moskva II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva II
2.35
Kairat Moskva
1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva II
1.28
Kairat Moskva
1.20

finishing

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par
Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva II ↓

Kairat Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva II or draw
75%
Dinamo Moskva II or Kairat Moskva
77%
Draw or Kairat Moskva
48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
29%
Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
83%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
53%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
26%
Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
68%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
32%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
68%
Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva II attack 2.35 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Moskva II scores more
52%
level
23%
Kairat Moskva scores more
25%

Dinamo Moskva II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo Moskva II 1–1 Kairat Moskva

Dinamo Moskva II and Kairat Moskva drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on June 10, 2022.

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.