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Dinamo Moskva II vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
6/25/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Dinamo Moskva II52%
×Draw23%
Baltika BFU26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva II
1.89
Baltika BFU
1.27

Dinamo Moskva II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 53 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva II
2.35
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva II
1.28
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva II ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva II or draw
74%
Dinamo Moskva II or Baltika BFU
77%
Draw or Baltika BFU
48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
29%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
85%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
56%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
29%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
72%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
36%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
67%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva II attack 2.35 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.89

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Moskva II scores more
52%
level
23%
Baltika BFU scores more
26%

Dinamo Moskva II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Moskva II vs Baltika BFU

Baltika BFU beat Dinamo Moskva II 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on June 25, 2024.

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.