Dinamo Moscow 3–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Dinamo Moscow

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

K. Tyukavin 87'

A. Zakharyan 48'

F. Smolov 22'

5/10/2022

Cup · Semi-finalsVTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dinamo Moscow52%

×Draw23%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MoscowExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.21

Dinamo Moscow

1.85

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.21

Dinamo Moscow creates 53% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 6 away

2.04

creates per match

1.33

1.09

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow

2.04

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow

1.09

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw

75%

Dinamo Moscow or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

77%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

29%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

55%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

70%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

34%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

68%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 2.04 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.85

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more

52%

level

23%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

25%

Dinamo Moscow at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

F. Smolov↳ D. Makarov

35'

David Shavlokhov

45+1'

D. Skopintsev← D. Laxalt

46'

I. Mashukov← A. Eldarushev

46'

A. Tsaraev← A. Khugaev

46'

N. Giorgobiani← A. Zaseev

48'

A. Zakharyan↳ F. Smolov

65'

D. Lesovoy← D. Makarov

65'

K. Tyukavin← F. Smolov

65'

R. Sosranov← David Kobesov

67'

Sebastian Szymański

72'

D. Grigorjev← A. Khabalov

73'

David Shavlokhov

77'

C. N'Jie← S. Szymański

78'

78'

86'

87'

87'

87'

K. Tyukavin↳ D. Lesovoy

89'

Konstantin Tyukavin

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DinamoAlaniya

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots4

1Corners3

14Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots4

6On Target1

7Off Target3

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls11

4Yellow Cards8

0Red Cards2

8Offsides6

Cup: Dinamo Moscow 3–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Dinamo Moscow beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3-0 in Cup on May 10, 2022.

Goals: F. Smolov (22'), A. Zakharyan (48'), K. Tyukavin (87').

Alaniya Vladikavkaz controlled possession (51%) and registered 4 shots to 13.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.

Dinamo Moscow vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Cup: Dinamo Moscow 3–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz