Dinamo Moscow 1–0 AEL: Result & Stats

Dinamo Moscow

1 – 0

AEL

7/2/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Peter Lisec Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Moscow42%

×Draw22%

AEL36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MoscowExpected goals in this matchAEL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.73

Dinamo Moscow

1.89

AEL

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

2.11

1.36

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow

2.00

AEL

2.11

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow

1.36

AEL

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

AEL+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

AEL →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw

64%

Dinamo Moscow or AEL

78%

Draw or AEL

58%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

23%

AEL wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

85%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

56%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

29%

AEL 1+ goals

82%

AEL 2+ goals

52%

AEL 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

54%

AEL (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

AEL away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 2.00 + AEL defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.89

AEL attack 2.11 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more

42%

level

22%

AEL scores more

36%

Dinamo Moscow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff