Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Minsk vs Smorgon — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
CANC
08:00
Smorgon
Smorgon
2/17/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadyen Dynama-Juni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Minsk50%
×Draw25%
Smorgon26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Minsk
1.64
Smorgon
1.10

Dinamo Minsk creates 49% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk
1.90
Smorgon
1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk
1.20
Smorgon
1.38

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par
Smorgon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

Smorgon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw
74%
Dinamo Minsk or Smorgon
75%
Draw or Smorgon
50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
26%
Smorgon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
49%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
23%
Smorgon 1+ goals
67%
Smorgon 2+ goals
30%
Smorgon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
66%
Smorgon (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Smorgon away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.90 + Smorgon defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.64

Smorgon attack 1.00 + Dinamo Minsk defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more
50%
level
25%
Smorgon scores more
26%

Dinamo Minsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Minsk vs Smorgon — Match Preview

Dinamo Minsk face Smorgon on February 17, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dinamo Minsk host Smorgon at Stadyen Dynama-Juni.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.