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Dinamo Minsk vs Ostrovets FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
CANC
08:00
Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
2/24/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadyen Dynama-Juni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dinamo Minsk49%
×Draw27%
Ostrovets FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Minsk
1.45
Ostrovets FC
0.94

Dinamo Minsk creates 54% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk
1.90
Ostrovets FC
0.67

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk
1.20
Ostrovets FC
1.00

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par
Ostrovets FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

Ostrovets FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw
76%
Dinamo Minsk or Ostrovets FC
73%
Draw or Ostrovets FC
51%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
24%
Ostrovets FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
18%
Ostrovets FC 1+ goals
61%
Ostrovets FC 2+ goals
24%
Ostrovets FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
67%
Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Ostrovets FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.90 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ostrovets FC attack 0.67 + Dinamo Minsk defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more
49%
level
27%
Ostrovets FC scores more
24%

Dinamo Minsk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Minsk host Ostrovets FC

February 24, 2024: Dinamo Minsk take on Ostrovets FC in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Minsk host Ostrovets FC at Stadyen Dynama-Juni.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.