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Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
Preview
17:00
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
7/30/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadion Beroe
51%
Dinamo Minsk
model favours
51%25%25%

Dinamo Minsk score first in only 32% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dinamo Minsk51%
×Draw25%
Neftchi Baku25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Minsk
1.63
Neftchi Baku
1.06

Dinamo Minsk creates 54% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Neftchi Baku
0.75

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk
1.38
Neftchi Baku
2.50

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par
Neftchi Baku+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

Neftchi Baku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw
75%
Dinamo Minsk or Neftchi Baku
75%
Draw or Neftchi Baku
49%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
27%
Neftchi Baku wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
48%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
22%
Neftchi Baku 1+ goals
65%
Neftchi Baku 2+ goals
29%
Neftchi Baku 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
67%
Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Neftchi Baku away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 0.75 + Neftchi Baku defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Neftchi Baku attack 0.75 + Dinamo Minsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more
51%
level
25%
Neftchi Baku scores more
25%

Dinamo Minsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 48% of Dinamo Minsk’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Minsk
WWLWD
Baku
LLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Minsk face Neftchi Baku (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League returns with Dinamo Minsk hosting Neftchi Baku. Match starts July 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dinamo Minsk host Neftchi Baku at Stadion Beroe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.