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Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Preview
16:00
Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
7/22/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundPalms Sports Arena
63%
Neftchi Baku
model favours
63%20%17%

52% of Dinamo Minsk’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Neftchi Baku63%
×Draw20%
Dinamo Minsk17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neftchi Baku
2.17
Dinamo Minsk
1.05

Neftchi Baku creates 107% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Neftchi Baku
2.20
Dinamo Minsk
0.71

allows per match

Neftchi Baku
1.40
Dinamo Minsk
2.14

finishing

Neftchi Baku+0.00on par
Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi Baku ↓

Dinamo Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Neftchi Baku or draw
83%
Neftchi Baku or Dinamo Minsk
80%
Draw or Dinamo Minsk
37%

Winning margin

Neftchi Baku wins by 2+
39%
Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Neftchi Baku 1+ goals
89%
Neftchi Baku 2+ goals
64%
Neftchi Baku 3+ goals
36%
Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
28%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Neftchi Baku (draw refunded)
78%
Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi Baku at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Dinamo Minsk away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi Baku attack 2.20 + Dinamo Minsk defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dinamo Minsk attack 0.71 + Neftchi Baku defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Neftchi Baku scores more
63%
level
20%
Dinamo Minsk scores more
17%

Neftchi Baku at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Neftchi Baku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dinamo Minsk score first in only 33% of matches
  • Neftchi Baku and Dinamo Minsk have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Baku
LWLLW
Minsk
WLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Neftchi Baku host Dinamo Minsk

July 22, 2026: Neftchi Baku take on Dinamo Minsk in UEFA Europa Conference League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Neftchi Baku host Dinamo Minsk at Palms Sports Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.