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Dinamo Minsk vs Larne — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Larne
Larne
G. Zherdev 73'
A. Gavrilovich 67' (pen)
12/12/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Mehdi Hüseynzadə adına Sumqayıt şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Minsk41%
×Draw31%
Larne29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Minsk
1.10
Larne
0.87

Dinamo Minsk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Larne
0.36

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk
1.38
Larne
1.45

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par
Larne+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

Larne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw
71%
Dinamo Minsk or Larne
69%
Draw or Larne
59%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
17%
Larne wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
30%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
10%
Larne 1+ goals
58%
Larne 2+ goals
22%
Larne 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
59%
Larne (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Larne away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 0.75 + Larne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.10

Larne attack 0.36 + Dinamo Minsk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more
41%
level
31%
Larne scores more
29%

Dinamo Minsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
G. ZherdevDinamo MinskDinamo Minsk · M
7.9

Match Events

28'
Aleksei Gavrilovich
31'
Vladislav Kalinin
33'
Mark Randall
36'
Andy Ryan
46'
T. Melnichenko← R. Adeola
46'
G. Zherdev← D. Podstrelov
47'
Chris Gallagher
50'
Shaun Want
59'
D. Sloan← M. Randall
60'
J. McEneff← A. Ryan
65'
Cian Bolger
67'
A. GavrilovichPenalty
73'
G. Zherdev↳ V. Pigas
76'
M. Lusty← J. Thomson
76'
C. McKendry← P. ONeill
84'
J. Okoro← P. Sedko
89'
B. Amian← D. Kulikov
90+2'
Cian Bolger
90+3'
S. Politevich← R. Begunov

Possession

54%Dinamo

Shots

11Dinamo

Pass accuracy

53%Dinamo

Statistics

DinamoLarne
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots8
2.16Expected Goals (xG)0.55
9Corners2
21Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots8
4On Target2
5Off Target5
2Blocked1
8Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
422Total Passes377
353Accurate Passes282
84%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
-0.17Goals Prevented-0.17
Discipline
21Fouls13
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
0Offsides1

UEFA Europa Conference League: Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Larne

Dinamo Minsk beat Larne 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 12, 2024.

Goals: A. Gavrilovich (67' pen), G. Zherdev (73').

Dinamo Minsk controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Mehdi Hüseynzadə adına Sumqayıt şəhər stadionu in Sumqayıt.