Dinamo Minsk 0–1 FC Slutsk: Result & Stats

Dinamo Minsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Slutsk

Kirill Tsepenkov 80'

6/14/2025

Premier League · Round 12Stadyen Dynama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Dinamo Minsk59%

×Draw24%

FC Slutsk17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MinskExpected goals in this matchFC Slutsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.78

Dinamo Minsk

1.69

FC Slutsk

0.78

Dinamo Minsk creates 117% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 110 away

1.77

creates per match

0.85

0.72

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk

1.77

FC Slutsk

0.85

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk

0.72

FC Slutsk

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

FC Slutsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw

83%

Dinamo Minsk or FC Slutsk

76%

Draw or FC Slutsk

41%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+

33%

FC Slutsk wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals

82%

Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals

50%

Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals

24%

FC Slutsk 1+ goals

54%

FC Slutsk 2+ goals

18%

FC Slutsk 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)

78%

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.72 · 119 matches

FC Slutsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.61 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.77 + FC Slutsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC Slutsk attack 0.85 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more

59%

level

24%

FC Slutsk scores more

17%

Dinamo Minsk at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Aleksey Vakulich← Fard Ibrahim

46'

Vadim Pigas← Roman Begunov

46'

Kirill Tsepenkov← Pedro Igor

58'

Evgeniy Shevchenko← Denis Grechikho

65'

Moustapha Djimet← Ivan Bakhar

67'

Andrey Kren← Maksim Zhumabekov

71'

Amirbek Bakaev← Andrey Rum

77'

Fedor Lebedev← Yaroslav Yarotskiy

80'

Kirill Tsepenkov↳ Moustapha Djimet

Statistics

DinamoFC

Discipline

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0