Dinamo Minsk 0–4 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats

Dinamo Minsk

0 – 4

Dinamo Moscow

2/21/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Cornelia Diamond Hotel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dinamo Minsk46%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Moscow30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MinskExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.32

Dinamo Minsk

1.67

Dinamo Moscow

1.32

Dinamo Minsk creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.90

creates per match

1.45

1.20

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk

1.90

Dinamo Moscow

1.45

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk

1.20

Dinamo Moscow

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw

70%

Dinamo Minsk or Dinamo Moscow

76%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+

24%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals

81%

Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals

50%

Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals

23%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

73%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

38%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)

60%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.90 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.45 + Dinamo Minsk defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more

46%

level

24%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

30%

Dinamo Minsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff