Dinamo Minsk 2–1 Bate Borisov: Result & Stats

Dinamo Minsk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bate Borisov

4/19/2025

Premier League · Round 5Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Dinamo Minsk42%

×Draw27%

Bate Borisov31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MinskExpected goals in this matchBate Borisov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.13

Dinamo Minsk

1.35

Bate Borisov

1.13

Dinamo Minsk creates 19% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 125 away

1.75

creates per match

1.50

0.75

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk

1.75

Bate Borisov

1.50

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk

0.75

Bate Borisov

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

Bate Borisov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw

69%

Dinamo Minsk or Bate Borisov

73%

Draw or Bate Borisov

58%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+

19%

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals

39%

Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals

15%

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

68%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

31%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)

57%

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 125 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.75 + Bate Borisov defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bate Borisov attack 1.50 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more

42%

level

27%

Bate Borisov scores more

31%

Dinamo Minsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff