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Dinamo Minsk vs Bate Borisov — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
V. Pigas 42'
11/25/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Stadyen Dynama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Dinamo Minsk43%
×Draw27%
Bate Borisov30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Minsk
1.36
Bate Borisov
1.10

Dinamo Minsk creates 24% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 113 away

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk
1.77
Bate Borisov
1.49

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk
0.72
Bate Borisov
0.96

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par
Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

Bate Borisov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw
70%
Dinamo Minsk or Bate Borisov
73%
Draw or Bate Borisov
57%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
20%
Bate Borisov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
39%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
16%
Bate Borisov 1+ goals
67%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
30%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
59%
Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.72 · 119 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.77 + Bate Borisov defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bate Borisov attack 1.49 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more
43%
level
27%
Bate Borisov scores more
30%

Dinamo Minsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Pedro Igor← T. Melnichenko
20'
Victor Sotnikov
34'
V. Khvashchinskiy← S. Alfred
42'
V. Pigas
53'
Ruslan Khadarkevich
63'
Pavel Pashevich
72'
Z. Gitselev← K. Chernook
72'
T. Dzhikia← O. Ömırtaev
72'
M. Svidinskiy← P. Pashevich
72'
I. Aleksievich← V. Sotnikov
73'
G. Zherdev← P. Sedko
73'
B. Amian← D. Kulikov
77'
N. Mirskiy← D. Zhulpa
90+3'
Fedor Lapoukhov

Statistics

DinamoBate
Discipline
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Dinamo Minsk vs Bate Borisov

Dinamo Minsk beat Bate Borisov 1-0 in Premier League on November 25, 2024.

Goals: V. Pigas (42').

The match was played at Stadyen Dynama in Minsk.