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Dinamo Minsk vs Bate Borisov — Coppa 2026

Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minskadvanced
Pens
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
3/10/2024CoppaCoppa · Quarter-finalsStadyen Dynama-Juni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dinamo Minsk29%
×Draw22%
Bate Borisov48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Minsk
1.46
Bate Borisov
1.92

Bate Borisov creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk
2.17
Bate Borisov
3.00

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk
0.83
Bate Borisov
0.75

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par
Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

Bate Borisov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw
52%
Dinamo Minsk or Bate Borisov
78%
Draw or Bate Borisov
71%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
13%
Bate Borisov wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
18%
Bate Borisov 1+ goals
85%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
57%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
38%
Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 2.17 + Bate Borisov defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bate Borisov attack 3.00 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more
29%
level
22%
Bate Borisov scores more
48%

Bate Borisov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Minsk vs Bate Borisov

Bate Borisov beat Dinamo Minsk 3-2 in Coppa on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Dynama-Juni in Minsk.