Dinamo Minsk II 1–0 ML Vitebsk: Result & Stats

Dinamo Minsk II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ML Vitebsk

D. Turovets 79'

8/10/2024

1. Division · Round 19Stadyen Dynama-Juni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Dinamo Minsk II32%

×Draw23%

ML Vitebsk45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Minsk IIExpected goals in this matchML Vitebsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.74

Dinamo Minsk II

1.42

ML Vitebsk

1.74

ML Vitebsk creates 23% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 45 away

1.44

creates per match

2.36

1.12

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk II

1.44

ML Vitebsk

2.36

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk II

1.12

ML Vitebsk

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Minsk II+0.00on par

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk II ↓

ML Vitebsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk II or draw

55%

Dinamo Minsk II or ML Vitebsk

77%

Draw or ML Vitebsk

68%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk II wins by 2+

14%

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk II 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Minsk II 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo Minsk II 3+ goals

17%

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

82%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

52%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk II (draw refunded)

41%

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk II at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk II attack 1.44 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

ML Vitebsk attack 2.36 + Dinamo Minsk II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Minsk II scores more

32%

level

23%

ML Vitebsk scores more

45%

ML Vitebsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

S. Balanovich

58'

N. Ivanov← A. Alshanik

72'

78'

M. Aleksandrov← A. Voskoboynikov

79'

Y. Bara← T. Pukhov

79'

D. Turovets

85'

V. Zhuk

90+3'

90+2'

A. Grabtsevich← D. Turovets

Dinamo

ML

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Lentsevich

78'▲M. Aleksandrov←▼A. Voskoboynikov

90+2'▲A. Grabtsevich←▼D. Turovets

Dinamo Minsk II substitutes

AleksandrovGrabtsevichArsenyevKonyakhinLitvinIsachenkoDrozdAdamovichPetrashko

Manager: V. Petrashko

58'▲N. Ivanov←▼A. Alshanik

79'▲Y. Bara←▼T. Pukhov

ML Vitebsk substitutes

IvanovBaraKudinOmelyanchukKostomarov

Match Recap: Dinamo Minsk II vs ML Vitebsk

Dinamo Minsk II beat ML Vitebsk 1-0 in 1. Division on August 10, 2024.

Goals: D. Turovets (79').

The match was played at Stadyen Dynama-Juni in Minsk.

Dinamo Minsk II vs ML Vitebsk — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dinamo Minsk II vs ML Vitebsk