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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
Preview
15:00
Zenit
Zenit
5/8/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Anzhi Arena
Big match
44%
Zenit
model favours
27%29%44%

Zenit are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala27%
×Draw29%
Zenit44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.92
Zenit
1.27

Zenit creates 38% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 120 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.06
Zenit
1.64

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.90
Zenit
0.78

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Zenit+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Zenit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
56%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Zenit
71%
Draw or Zenit
73%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
9%
Zenit wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
60%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
23%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
7%
Zenit 1+ goals
72%
Zenit 2+ goals
36%
Zenit 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
38%
Zenit (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Zenit away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + Zenit defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.92

Zenit attack 1.64 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
27%
level
29%
Zenit scores more
44%

Zenit at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Zenit have scored in 12 games running
  • Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches
  • Zenit have won 6 of the last 7 meetings
  • Zenit score first in 67% of matches
  • Style contrast — Dinamo Makhachkala play Direct / counter-attacking, Zenit Possession-dominant
  • Dinamo Makhachkala sit 12, Zenit 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Dinamo Makhachkala
Direct / counter-attacking
Zenit
Possession-dominant
44%Possession59%
68%Pass accuracy84%
10.6Shots14.4
0.88xGBiggest gap2.53
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Dinamo MakhachkalaZenit

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

0
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
Draws
6
Zenit
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 29%
1–10–20–10–10–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Makhachkala
WDLWL
Zenit
DWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Makhachkala face Zenit (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Dinamo Makhachkala hosting Zenit. Match starts May 8, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dinamo Makhachkala host Zenit at Anzhi Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.