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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Vardar Skopje — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
1/26/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala65%
×Draw19%
Vardar Skopje16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
2.21
Vardar Skopje
0.98

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 126% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
2.29
Vardar Skopje
1.25

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.71
Vardar Skopje
2.13

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
84%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Vardar Skopje
81%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
35%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
42%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
89%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
65%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
38%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
62%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
26%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
81%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 2.29 + Vardar Skopje defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.21

Vardar Skopje attack 1.25 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
65%
level
19%
Vardar Skopje scores more
16%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Dinamo Makhachkala 3–0 Vardar Skopje

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Vardar Skopje 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 26, 2026.