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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Tyumen — First League 2018

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tyumen
Tyumen
11/18/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala52%
×Draw30%
Tyumen19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.27
Tyumen
0.64

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 98% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.15
Tyumen
0.78

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.50
Tyumen
1.40

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
81%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Tyumen
70%
Draw or Tyumen
48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
24%
Tyumen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
14%
Tyumen 1+ goals
47%
Tyumen 2+ goals
14%
Tyumen 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
73%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.50 · 34 matches

Tyumen away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.15 + Tyumen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tyumen attack 0.78 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
52%
level
30%
Tyumen scores more
19%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Tyumen

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Tyumen 3-1 in First League on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Anzhi-Arena in Kaspiysk.