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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow — Cup 2019

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
10/22/2024CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 5Anzhi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala31%
×Draw27%
Spartak Moscow43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.13
Spartak Moscow
1.38

Spartak Moscow creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.61

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.14
Spartak Moscow
1.25

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
57%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Spartak Moscow
73%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
69%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
12%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
68%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
31%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
11%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
75%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
40%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
42%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.00 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Spartak Moscow attack 1.61 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
31%
level
27%
Spartak Moscow scores more
43%

Spartak Moscow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 Spartak Moscow

Spartak Moscow beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-0 in Cup on October 22, 2024.

The match was played at Anzhi Arena in Kaspiysk.