Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 Spartak Moscow

Dinamo Makhachkala

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Spartak Moscow

9/15/2024

Premier League · Round 8Anzhi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala37%

×Draw28%

Spartak Moscow35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MakhachkalaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.13

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.16

Spartak Moscow

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 120 away

1.06

creates per match

1.35

0.90

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.06

Spartak Moscow

1.35

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.90

Spartak Moscow

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Spartak Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw

65%

Dinamo Makhachkala or Spartak Moscow

72%

Draw or Spartak Moscow

63%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

15%

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

69%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

32%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

11%

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

68%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

31%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

51%

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Spartak Moscow attack 1.35 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

37%

level

28%

Spartak Moscow scores more

35%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff