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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
8/7/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala50%
×Draw29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.31
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.74

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 77% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 123 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.15
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
79%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Shinnik Yaroslavl
71%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
24%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
14%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
52%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
17%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
70%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.50 · 34 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.15 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
50%
level
29%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
21%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-1 in First League on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Anzhi-Arena in Kaspiysk.