Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov

Dinamo Makhachkala

Preview

16:00

Krylia Sovetov

12/5/2026

Premier League · Round 17Anzhi Arena

Big match

48%

Dinamo Makhachkala

model favours

48%27%25%

Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

57%

under 2.5 goals

47%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala48%

×Draw27%

Krylia Sovetov25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MakhachkalaExpected goals in this matchKrylia Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.96

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.44

Krylia Sovetov

0.96

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 50% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 105 away

1.06

creates per match

1.02

0.90

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.06

Krylia Sovetov

1.02

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.90

Krylia Sovetov

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Krylia Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw

75%

Dinamo Makhachkala or Krylia Sovetov

73%

Draw or Krylia Sovetov

52%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

24%

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

42%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

18%

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

62%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

25%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

66%

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.81 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.44

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

48%

level

27%

Krylia Sovetov scores more

25%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Krylia Sovetov fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Dinamo Makhachkala

Direct / counter-attacking

Krylia Sovetov

Balanced

42%Possession48%

67%Pass accuracy78%

10.6Shots11.1

0.21xGBiggest gap1.68

Dinamo MakhachkalaKrylia Sovetov

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

4

Dinamo Makhachkala

1

Draws

1

Krylia Sovetov

Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 17%

0–22–04–03–31–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Makhachkala

WDLWL

Sovetov

LLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff