Dinamo Makhachkala 2–0 FK Neftekhimik

Dinamo Makhachkala

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FK Neftekhimik

5/6/2023

First League · Round 30Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala44%

×Draw30%

FK Neftekhimik25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MakhachkalaExpected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.81

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.17

FK Neftekhimik

0.81

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 44% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 123 away

1.15

creates per match

1.12

0.50

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.15

FK Neftekhimik

1.12

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.50

FK Neftekhimik

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw

75%

Dinamo Makhachkala or FK Neftekhimik

70%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

19%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

69%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

11%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

56%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

19%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

63%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.50 · 34 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.15 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.12 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

44%

level

30%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

25%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff