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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Essentuki — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Essentuki
Essentuki
9/28/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Anzhi Sports Complex pole 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala81%
×Draw13%
Essentuki6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
2.60
Essentuki
0.55

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 373% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 44 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
2.16
Essentuki
0.36

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.75
Essentuki
3.05

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Essentuki+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Essentuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
94%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Essentuki
87%
Draw or Essentuki
19%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
59%
Essentuki wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
92%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
73%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
47%
Essentuki 1+ goals
42%
Essentuki 2+ goals
11%
Essentuki 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
93%
Essentuki (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Essentuki away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 2.16 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.60

Essentuki attack 0.36 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
81%
level
13%
Essentuki scores more
6%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 Essentuki

Dinamo Makhachkala and Essentuki drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 28, 2020.

The match was played at Anzhi Sports Complex pole 3 in Kaspiysk.