Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Makhachkala vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Cup 2019

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
11/2/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 5th RoundAnzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala33%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Vladivostok41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.47

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.80

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.14
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.60

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
59%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Dinamo Vladivostok
75%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
15%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
14%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
45%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.00 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.80 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
33%
level
25%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
41%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Makhachkala 0 – 0 Dinamo Vladivostok

Dinamo Makhachkala and Dinamo Vladivostok drew 0-0 in Cup on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Anzhi-Arena in Kaspiysk.