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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Baltika — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
Preview
16:00
Baltika
Baltika
3/20/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Anzhi Arena
37%
Dinamo Makhachkala
model favours
37%30%33%

Baltika have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala37%
×Draw30%
Baltika33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.09
Baltika
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.06
Baltika
1.10

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.90
Baltika
1.13

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
67%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Baltika
70%
Draw or Baltika
63%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
15%
Baltika wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
66%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
30%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
10%
Baltika 1+ goals
63%
Baltika 2+ goals
26%
Baltika 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
53%
Baltika (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Baltika attack 1.10 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
37%
level
30%
Baltika scores more
33%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches
  • Baltika score first in only 27% of matches
  • Baltika have scored in 8 games running
  • Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Dinamo Makhachkala
Direct / counter-attacking
Baltika
Direct / counter-attacking
44%Possession42%
68%Pass accuracy67%
10.6Shots12.0
0.88xGBiggest gap1.42
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Dinamo MakhachkalaBaltika

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Dinamo Makhachkala
3
Draws
1
Baltika
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 50%
2–20–20–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Makhachkala
WDLWL
Baltika
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Makhachkala host Baltika

March 20, 2027: Dinamo Makhachkala take on Baltika in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Makhachkala host Baltika at Anzhi Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.