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Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala — First League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
9/12/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Baltika42%
×Draw33%
Dinamo Makhachkala25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.03
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.72

Baltika creates 43% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 34 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.25
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.68

allows per match

Baltika
0.75
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.82

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
75%
Baltika or Dinamo Makhachkala
67%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
58%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
17%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
64%
Baltika 2+ goals
28%
Baltika 3+ goals
9%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
51%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
16%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
63%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.68, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.25 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.68 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baltika scores more
42%
level
33%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
25%

Baltika at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Baltika 1–1 Dinamo Makhachkala

Baltika and Dinamo Makhachkala drew 1-1 in First League on September 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kaliningrad in Kaliningrad.