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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Anzhi — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Anzhi
Anzhi
10/25/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Anzhi Sports Complex pole 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala52%
×Draw23%
Anzhi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.77
Anzhi
1.16

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 53% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
2.16
Anzhi
1.56

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.75
Anzhi
1.38

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Anzhi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Anzhi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
75%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Anzhi
77%
Draw or Anzhi
48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
28%
Anzhi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
83%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
53%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
26%
Anzhi 1+ goals
69%
Anzhi 2+ goals
32%
Anzhi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
67%
Anzhi (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Anzhi away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 2.16 + Anzhi defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.77

Anzhi attack 1.56 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
52%
level
23%
Anzhi scores more
25%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 Anzhi

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Anzhi 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Anzhi Sports Complex pole 3 in Kaspiysk.