Dinamo Makhachkala 3–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Dinamo Makhachkala

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

9/18/2023

First League · Round 10Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala45%

×Draw29%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MakhachkalaExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.87

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.24

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

0.87

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 43% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

1.15

creates per match

1.24

0.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.15

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.50

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw

74%

Dinamo Makhachkala or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

71%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

20%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

71%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

35%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

13%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

58%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

22%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

63%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.50 · 34 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.15 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

45%

level

29%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

26%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff