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Dinamo Kirov vs Zenit 2 — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Kirov
Dinamo Kirov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zenit 2
Zenit 2
10/1/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Avitek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Kirov49%
×Draw25%
Zenit 227%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Kirov
1.61
Zenit 2
1.12

Dinamo Kirov creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 80 away

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov
1.88
Zenit 2
1.49

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov
0.75
Zenit 2
1.35

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par
Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Zenit 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw
73%
Dinamo Kirov or Zenit 2
75%
Draw or Zenit 2
51%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+
25%
Zenit 2 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals
48%
Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals
22%
Zenit 2 1+ goals
67%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
31%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)
65%
Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.35 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.88 + Zenit 2 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.61

Zenit 2 attack 1.49 + Dinamo Kirov defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more
49%
level
25%
Zenit 2 scores more
27%

Dinamo Kirov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo Kirov 1–1 Zenit 2

Dinamo Kirov and Zenit 2 drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avitek in Kirov.