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Dinamo Kirov vs Novosibirsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Dinamo Kirov
Dinamo Kirov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
10/19/2025Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 14VyatSShOR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Kirov43%
×Draw28%
Novosibirsk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Kirov
1.31
Novosibirsk
1.04

Dinamo Kirov creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Novosibirsk
0.96

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov
1.11
Novosibirsk
1.61

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par
Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Novosibirsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw
70%
Dinamo Kirov or Novosibirsk
72%
Draw or Novosibirsk
57%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+
20%
Novosibirsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals
14%
Novosibirsk 1+ goals
65%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
28%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)
59%
Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.00 + Novosibirsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Novosibirsk attack 0.96 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more
43%
level
28%
Novosibirsk scores more
30%

Dinamo Kirov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Kirov vs Novosibirsk

Dinamo Kirov beat Novosibirsk 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at VyatSShOR.