Dinamo Kirov 5–0 Nizhny Novgorod II: Result & Stats

Dinamo Kirov

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod II

6/1/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Stadion Avitek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dinamo Kirov81%

×Draw13%

Nizhny Novgorod II6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo KirovExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

0.54

Dinamo Kirov

2.58

Nizhny Novgorod II

0.54

Dinamo Kirov creates 378% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.54

creates per match

0.46

0.62

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov

2.54

Nizhny Novgorod II

0.46

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov

0.62

Nizhny Novgorod II

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Nizhny Novgorod II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw

94%

Dinamo Kirov or Nizhny Novgorod II

87%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod II

19%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+

59%

Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals

92%

Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals

72%

Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals

47%

Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals

42%

Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals

10%

Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)

93%

Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Nizhny Novgorod II away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 2.54 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.58

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 0.46 + Dinamo Kirov defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more

81%

level

13%

Nizhny Novgorod II scores more

6%

Dinamo Kirov at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff