Dinamo Kirov 0–1 Leningradets: Result & Stats

Dinamo Kirov

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leningradets

M. Bachinskiy 5'

9/14/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 9VyatSShOR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Kirov37%

×Draw29%

Leningradets35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo KirovExpected goals in this matchLeningradets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.09

Dinamo Kirov

1.13

Leningradets

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

1.00

creates per match

1.07

1.11

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov

1.00

Leningradets

1.07

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov

1.11

Leningradets

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Leningradets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw

65%

Dinamo Kirov or Leningradets

71%

Draw or Leningradets

63%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+

15%

Leningradets wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals

68%

Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals

31%

Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals

11%

Leningradets 1+ goals

66%

Leningradets 2+ goals

30%

Leningradets 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)

51%

Leningradets (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.00 + Leningradets defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Leningradets attack 1.07 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more

37%

level

29%

Leningradets scores more

35%

Dinamo Kirov at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

9'

29'

42'

62'

N. Tereshchuk← M. Bachinskiy

65'

D. Zakharov← V. Marukhin

66'

T. Danilov

70'

M. Martinkevich← A. Ukomskiy

70'

D. Usov← D. Nagovitsin

77'

S. Nikolaev← N. Sukhanov

77'

I. Bykovskiy← A. Kulishev

81'

N. Bochko

85'

E. Cherkes← S. Sharov

90+4'

I. Bykovskiy

90+5'

D. Zakharov

90+3'

A. Vyskrebentsev← D. Dushevskiy

90+3'

I. Muminov← I. Shkolik

Dinamo

Leningradets

1

44

4

19

55

▼

Sukhanov

10

Gorelishv

13

▼

Dushevski

20

▼

Shkolik

32

▼

Kulishev

81

Gurenko

77

⚽

▼

97

5

4

3

23

12

28

22

▼

Sharov

20

▼

Marukhin

11

▼

Ukomskiy

93

▼

Nagovitsi

65'▲D. Zakharov←▼V. Marukhin

70'▲M. Martinkevich←▼A. Ukomskiy

70'▲D. Usov←▼D. Nagovitsin

85'▲E. Cherkes←▼S. Sharov

Dinamo Kirov substitutes

96Mironov18Smoroda7Goryushkin72Teplyakov8Cherkes6Martinkevich9Zakharov19Fominykh10Usov

Manager: Aleksey Baga

62'▲N. Tereshchuk←▼M. Bachinskiy

77'▲S. Nikolaev←▼N. Sukhanov

77'▲I. Bykovskiy←▼A. Kulishev

90+3'▲A. Vyskrebentsev←▼D. Dushevskiy

90+3'▲I. Muminov←▼I. Shkolik

Leningradets substitutes

75Budachev2Nikolaev94Bykovskiy6Vyskrebentsev17Muminov18Sukhanov8Gorulev91Roshchin66Tereshchuk56Sidelnikov

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Dinamo Kirov 0–1 Leningradets

Leningradets beat Dinamo Kirov 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on September 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Bachinskiy (5').

The match was played at VyatSShOR.

Dinamo Kirov vs Leningradets — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Dinamo Kirov 0–1 Leningradets