Dinamo Kirov 1–0 Dinamo Stavropol: Result & Stats

Dinamo Kirov

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Stavropol

4/25/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 10VyatSShOR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Kirov58%

×Draw22%

Dinamo Stavropol21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo KirovExpected goals in this matchDinamo Stavropol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.11

Dinamo Kirov

2.00

Dinamo Stavropol

1.11

Dinamo Kirov creates 80% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.22

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov

2.22

Dinamo Stavropol

1.22

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov

1.00

Dinamo Stavropol

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw

79%

Dinamo Kirov or Dinamo Stavropol

78%

Draw or Dinamo Stavropol

42%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+

34%

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals

59%

Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals

32%

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals

67%

Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals

30%

Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)

74%

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 2.22 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.00

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more

58%

level

22%

Dinamo Stavropol scores more

21%

Dinamo Kirov at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff