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Dinamo Kirov vs Dinamo St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Kirov
Dinamo Kirov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
11/12/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Avitek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Kirov50%
×Draw24%
Dinamo St. Petersburg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Kirov
1.66
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.12

Dinamo Kirov creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 61 away

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov
1.88
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.49

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov
0.75
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.44

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par
Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Dinamo St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw
74%
Dinamo Kirov or Dinamo St. Petersburg
76%
Draw or Dinamo St. Petersburg
50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+
27%
Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals
49%
Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
31%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)
66%
Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.88 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.66

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.49 + Dinamo Kirov defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more
50%
level
24%
Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
26%

Dinamo Kirov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Kirov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Kirov vs Dinamo St. Petersburg

Dinamo Kirov beat Dinamo St. Petersburg 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avitek in Kirov.