Dinamo Kirov 0–2 2Drots: Result & Stats | Cup

Dinamo Kirov

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

2Drots

9/4/2023

Cup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion Belokamenka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dinamo Kirov35%

×Draw27%

2Drots38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo KirovExpected goals in this match2Drots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.29

Dinamo Kirov

1.21

2Drots

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.25

1.33

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov

1.67

2Drots

1.25

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov

1.33

2Drots

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

2Drots+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

2Drots →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw

62%

Dinamo Kirov or 2Drots

73%

Draw or 2Drots

65%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+

15%

2Drots wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals

34%

Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals

12%

2Drots 1+ goals

72%

2Drots 2+ goals

37%

2Drots 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)

47%

2Drots (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

2Drots away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.67 + 2Drots defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

2Drots attack 1.25 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more

35%

level

27%

2Drots scores more

38%

2Drots at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "2Drots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff